What’s blackjack variance?

In past articles, we talked about how you can manage your blackjack bankroll to stay on top of your game. Today, we thought we’d go deeper into the blackjack variance topic and explain why some card counters lose money even if they are professional strategists.

Even if you’re sure you master the basic blackjack strategy, high-low count, and playing deviation, the blackjack variance can still affect you. So what should you do about it? If you wonder, the below article was written for you.

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Blackjack variance

Variance and volatility in online games

Without a doubt, if you’ve played slots before, volatility is a term you’re familiar with. The volatility or variance is typically expressed in low, medium, high, or sometimes in 1 to 10 grades. Naturally, the higher the grade, the more volatile a slot is. Thus the more likely you are to win big, but less frequently.

Now we all know that slot games come with different features and RTPs. So, it’s paramount to understand the volatility index, as it gives you a hint of the amount of risk you are taking.

Blackjack games come with similar RTPs and features – why talking about variance?

In a certain way, blackjack is a fixed-odds game. You can, of course, deepen your knowledge to win more. But once you know how to play perfect blackjack. How can you explain that some days you’ll win more than others if your skills or the game’s rules don’t change?

The easiest way to see it would be to toss a quarter 10 times. Theoretically, you should land on heads or tails for an equal amount of time, right? Well, no, because the coins don’t remember the outcome of the last throw. And because each toss is an individual event. So, the 50-50 odds reset every time the coin is up in the air.

The same logic applies to every shoe you’ll play. This is why the variance in blackjack exists. And why you shouldn’t get discouraged by downswings. You’ll likely bounce back in hundreds of playing hours.

Can you avoid the negative variance when playing blackjack?

It’s a casino myth that you’ll avoid the negative variance by discretely back counting or only playing hot decks. Blackjack players who’ll say differently simply don’t put enough hours in the game to understand how much-expected value (EV) they generate per hour.

To put it simply, if one could avoid negative variance when playing blackjack, it would mean that they’d win every session they play. Imagine if it was the case. Do you think casinos would still offer blackjack games on their floor or in online casino lobbies?

How about those who say that quitting while you’re ahead could avoid negative variance when playing blackjack? They also don’t appreciate that one needs to play many hours to generate a positive EV. Maths always work in the long run. You simply have to trust in it and believe in your skills.

Can you minimize the impact of negative variance when playing blackjack?

You absolutely can. In fact, by adjusting your wager based on the shoe’s composition, you’ll minimize the impact of negative variance. Experts say you should consider changing table limits if you’ve lost 30% of your bankroll if you are on a downswing.

You could also use betting software to understand the risk of ruin at the level you’re playing. Typically, it’s recommended not to expose yourself to more than 3% risk. You could also opt to play double decks blackjack or surrender games. They are less risky than 6 or 8 decks, for example.

The reality is that blackjack variance exists. And the best way to minimize the impact is to adapt your blackjack strategy to be ready for it and not let it get to you too much.

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