What are the odds of getting a blackjack?
In this article we take a look at the odds of getting 21 in blackjack. One of the things that make the game of blackjack so appealing is the fact that it’s not just about luck. When you look at games such as online slots, there’s nothing that a player can do to impact the outcome. It’s simply a case of spinning and waiting to see what happens. Blackjack just isn’t the same.
Of course, Lady Luck still plays a part in any casino game, but with blackjack, there is also strategy to consider. The best players approach the game with mathematics in mind and understand that probability plays a major role. When looking at blackjack odds, this is how you assess the probability of a player beating the dealer. However, how does this compare to actually getting blackjack?
The odds of getting a blackjack will vary depending on the number of decks being used and the side bets that have been placed. Read on as we explore this in more detail.
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Odds of getting 21 in a single-deck game
When it comes to calculating the odds of getting a blackjack, this is much easier to do when only one deck is in play. If you’re lucky enough to find a table with a single deck, the odds of a player being dealt a blackjack are 4.8%.
While a natural blackjack is the best hand possible, with odds of 4.85 this doesn’t happen that often. That means that it’s also worth having an awareness of the other blackjack odds that come into play. Some of the odds to be aware of include:
- No bust – 26.5%
- Standing Hand (17 – 20) – 30%
- Decision Hand (1 – 16) – 38.7%
The odds for a dealer look a little different. These are:
- Natural blackjack – 4.82%
- Hands between 16 and 20 – 17.58% to 28.36%
It’s worth bearing in mind that there is an abundance of variants of blackjack. The odds will differ depending on the variant that’s being played. It’s also worth understanding the impact of a continuous shuffling machine. Such machines see the odds being reset at every hand as the deck is being shuffled over and over again.
Odds of getting 21 – Blackjack odds and side bets
As well as numerous blackjack variants, there is also a selection of side bets to choose from. These different side bets all come with varying odds and probabilities so let’s take a look at some of these now:
Blackjack Insurance
This bet is placed by a player when they anticipate that the dealer will have a blackjack. This bet can only be placed when players have received both of their cards and when the dealer’s upcard is an ace. The insurance bet is separate from the main game and pays out at 2:1.
There are plenty of players who will take the insurance bet as they think that it offers them security. However, the reality is that this is a bad bet to place: the odds just don’t make it viable. If the dealer is showing an ace then the second card needs to be worth 10 for them to have a natural blackjack. The odds of this being the case are only 30%. That means that there is a 70% chance that you’ll lose. Yes, you can then go on and play the main game, but you’ve already thrown money away before you’ve really got going.
21 + 3
This is a blackjack side bet that is inspired by poker. The bet is made on the assumption that the first two cards dealt to the player combine with the dealer’s upcard to make a combination of one of five possible poker hands. These are:
- Flush – three cards of the same suit
- Straight – three cards of consecutive values
- Straight Flush – three cards of consecutive values from the same suit
- Three of a Kind – three cards of the same value
- Suited Three of a Kind – three cards of the same value that are also in the same suit
The odds here are highly unattractive and this makes the 21 +3 side bet another one that is best avoided.
Pair Square
Pair Square is an extremely popular blackjack side bet. It is sometimes referred to as ‘Bet the Set’ and ‘Any Pair’. The latter name gives away what this side bet is all about. It’s based on a player’s first two cards making a pair. A suited pair is even better. If you take a look at the odds associated with this side bet, you’re obviously free to make up your own mind as to whether or not this one is worth exploring:
- Suited Pair – 0.06077%
- Non-suited Pair – 0.05878%
- No Pair – 0.926045%
Super 7
This is another blackjack side bet that comes with more differing odds. The bet here is about being dealt sevens. These sevens need to be of the same colour or suit. The bet must be placed at the very start of the game by placing a chip on a dedicated space on the table. The maximum wager is usually set around $5 and if the first card dealt is a seven, there is an immediate payout. The payout will be different depending on how many sevens a player has. Here’s a look at the odds that you need to be aware of:
- One seven – 0.071%
- Two unsuited sevens – 0.004%
- Two-suited sevens – 0.001%
- Three unsuited sevens – 0.00023%
- Three-suited sevens – 0.00011%
Hi-Lo
This is a basic side bet that’s placed on if one card will be higher or lower than another. It works with a player drawing one card from the deck and then betting on whether the next card will be worth more or less. The chances of winning this side bet are 0.486767%.
Final thoughts on the odds of getting 21
While there is huge interest in blackjack odds, these can get a little complicated. Even the odds of getting a natural blackjack will vary depending on the version of the game that you’re playing. Side bets complicate things even further. While these can add a little extra fun to this casino game, the reality is that the odds are less than appealing.
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